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  #51  
Old 08-22-2006, 06:23 PM
Roger Manyard Roger Manyard is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 624
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MH <mghembru@eceunix.uwaterloo.ca> trolled:
Quote:
We're currently on pace for around 86-87 wins. Some years, that's all it took for the Jays to win the AL East. These days, you need 100+ wins. The "good old Jays" NEVER hit 100 wins.


"We?" What exactly do you do, to help the team?
Quote:
Ok, so now Shoeneweiss and Hinske are the guys who will take us to the promised land?!?


"Us?" Nobody on the Jays is going to take you anywhere.

cordially, as always,

rm
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  #52  
Old 08-22-2006, 07:52 PM
MH MH is offline
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In article <1156230669.126888.190530@m79g2000cwm.googlegroups. com>,
Quirk <quirk@syntac.net> wrote:
Quote:
MH wrote:
Quote:
In article <1155871794.420210.164890@74g2000cwt.googlegroups.c om>, <jchristow@hotmail.com> wrote: You really want Escobar, who's been 23-24 for the Angels over 3 years? Eerily similar numbers to Burnett before we signed him (1 or 2 under .500). And Kelvim's no stranger to the DL...
Thanks MH. Bests posts in here in quite a while!


Thanks. I'm not an expert, and I'm sure I'm wrong on several points.. But, I
enjoy a good debate :-)

Quote:
One good point you make is that the jays have never had a hundred wins,the current benchmark for excellence, even in theire championshipyears. Does this reflect a decline in overall league parity?Does this reflect that payroll gap? If one team is getting 100 wins,other teams are sharing those 100 losses. During the Jays championshipyears they where a high spending team, but was the payroll disparitybetween teams higher or lower then?


I honestly can't give a good answer one way or another.

I do think that perhaps the average pitcher was better in the 80s, since
there were less teams. This means less total pitchers, so instead of needing
the top 300 pitcher in the world (some guess) like MLB needs now, you only
need the top 200 pitchers in the world. That means, on average, you're
hitting against the 100th best pitcher, instead of the 150th best pitcher..

League ERA has also gone up significantly. The best hitters are better than
ever. Yet, there are still amazingly good pitchers.

If you look at Roger Clemens putting up a 1.9x ERA last year.. That's simply
phenomenal when the league average ERA is 4.5 or more. Dave Stieb having an
ERA of 2.3 or 2.4 in '84 was great, but if league ERA was 2.9 or 3.1 (I
don't know the exact numbers), it's not THAT much better than average..

A lot of rambling to say: I can't answer this directly, because I don't even
know what I think about it..

MH

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  #53  
Old 08-23-2006, 10:16 AM
Quirk Quirk is offline
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bushdoctor48@webtv.net wrote:
Quote:
quirk wrote> As I said, for a team to get a 100 wins, that means that 100 losses happend. Is there a greater disparity now, not among the top teams, but between the tom and bottom teams, accounting for the higher win counds of the top teams? doc> For shit sake look it up yourself,


You are a wierd one Doc. If you do not feel compelled to answer a
question, just dont, nobodies forcing you. Why do you feel compelled to
make personal attackes, yet again.

This is a forum, asking questions is allowed, figuring out something
akin to a Gini coefficient trend of the last couple of decades for team
payroll is not trivial, and something that somebody may know about, if
you don't fine, I asked hoping somebody know and could simply answer
the questions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient
Quote:
supplied you with the info on the top and bottom teams for those years that the jays finished first.As you implied they spent heavily in their wining years.


The questions is how much where the teams that allowing all the losses
giving up, and how has does correlate to top payrolls over time.

I am not asking if the top team spend a lot, I am asking if league
payroll diferential explains the difference in win loss ratio then and
now.
Quote:
But as an example the nyy spent over 208 mill to get 95 wins while the halos spent just over 97 mill to get the same amount of wins.(in 2005) Where as the wsox spent just over 75 mill to get 99 wins and the m's spent well over 87 mill to get 69 wins, in the same season.


Where there a large number of games against teams with far lower
payrolls that gave up those 99 wins?
Quote:
The true nature of the calibre of the play in the central and the west also contibute to the disparity in mlb.


What was it about the central and west that created this disparity?
Quote:
BTW, here is a good article that touches on various posting styles, perhaps it will help you make your contributions more readable doc> Before you throw any more stones my way again,you need to look in your own glass house quirk.


I am not throwing stones, you asked in your last response to in the
other thread if I could suggest a guide to posting, I did so.
Quote:
Your spelling and your phrasing makes your posts very hard to follow as well.


None the less, I try my best, you are deliberitaly persisting using an
unreadable posting format and launching personal attacks when anybody
comments on it, even when they answer a question you asked about it.
Quote:
Poor typing skills is no excuse for unreadable words,as spell check is available on all formats.


Not google groups. And further, this is just a usenet group, I write my
contributions quickly and intend to continue doing so. I do my best,
but quick messages with no copy editing are going to have mistakes,
further, this is unrelated to you deliberatly persisting with an
undreadable posting format.

Stop being so defensive. Thanks for the information regarding wins and
payrolls.

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  #54  
Old 08-24-2006, 08:10 PM
Quido Quido is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 29
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MH wrote:
Quote:
Whose fault is it? It's totally his fault. He's the GM. He's theengineer of this train wreck. What train wreck? The Jays are currently the 7th best team in baseball. That means they're better than 23 other teams. Is that a horrible thing? In 4/6 of the other divisions, they'd be in first, or VERY CLOSE to 1st (don't know the up-to-the-minute standings). It just so happens that right now, AL East and Central are very tough.


You have a manager constantly fighting players. What other team does
that? Then has to give them away. Hillenbrand doesn't look like such an
exception anymore. I know, like everything else, it's not JP's fault.
He's a beacon of class.
Quote:
>Sure, in a parallel universe. (they're 1 win ahead of last years losing >pace with 25 million more in payroll -great job JP) They're currently at around .535 ball. How's that a losing season? I repeat the question.


I repeat the answer they're on the same pace as last years losing
season and 3 games below .500 since the break.
Quote:
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>It was also much harder to win. There was only 2 divisions and no >wildcard. Harder to win WHAT? The AL West had some VERY strong teams during that time.Repeat; there were 2 divisions, no central, no wildcard. 2 Playoffspots not 4. The math is not that tough.
I understand there were 2 divisions. There were also less teams, and NO teams that were super-stacked in our division. How is that hard to comprehend? We're currently on pace for around 86-87 wins. Some years, that's all it took for the Jays to win the AL East. These days, you need 100+ wins. The "good old Jays" NEVER hit 100 wins.


There were 7 teams in their division and no free lunch. You had to earn
it every night. Nobody was winning 100 games.

Quote:
>Renting a player to win a World Series is different than getting a guy >to finish third again. But, did we INTEND to finish 3rd? Come on, that's patronizing. Are you saying JP intentionally wanted to finish 3rd?The point is, in late July if you have a legitmate shot you might giveup a little much in a deadline deal. You don't overpay it in theoffseason.Where's your we BOUGHT theory now. Didn't they just SELL Hinske andShoenwiess? Nice consistant plan. We bought in the offseason, to be in a position to have a legitimate shot in July. If we did none of the trades and the pitching implodes, we're 15-20 games out in July. Ok, so now Shoeneweiss and Hinske are the guys who will take us to the promised land?!? Tell me this: 1) have you ever complained about Hinske? Have you at any time advocated trading him for a) little b) nothing c) a bag of balls? If so, you just got your wish, yet, you find a way to make it a negative..


It's negative because the guy had played his way to being an asset.
Surely they could have got something for them at the trading deadline.
Without recognizing this was another failed year Riccairdi clung to
faint hope and didn't make a move. 2 Weeks later the Jays are done and
he starts giving guys away.

Quote:
2) Would you resign Schoeneweiss after a year that was much worse than Towers? He has a friggin' 6.xx ERA. This guy was one of the worst players to have in our pen this year.


and that is saying a lot.
Quote:
>The jays only have 2 starting pitcher with plus .500 records and Chacin >been hurt most of the time. Gabe Gross is average at best. Koskie has been >hurt. The trade is a wash maybe a slight advantage to the jays. >> >> What about Lilly for Kielty? >It's really Lilly for Shannon Stewart. Lilly is a Dave Bush. A .500 >pitcher. Nothinng to crow about. We still have Lilly. Stewart would probably not have resigned. And, of course, we should have kept Stewart, who has done SO WELL the last couple of years.. (sarcasm there - he's sucked - WAY WORSE than Hinske, for example). So, instead of NOTHING, we have a decent pitcher.It's really sad the best deal you can come up with is Keilty for Lilly.If that's JPs best trade it really show how much he sucks. I didn't say it was. However, it's one you'll agree to.


It's exactly what you said. I said, and stand by the statement,
Ricciardi's never clearly won a deal. You said, the 10-11, 5.56 era,
Ted Lilly for Kelity .271, was an great example of JP's deal maaking
prowess.
Quote:
>> And Glaus instead of Koskie, who's hurt yet again? >> Glaus is #5 in the league in OPS - he's hitting BETTER than AROD. >> >> You can't say we "lost" the trade - you just said Kent for Cone was a good >> deal. In the same way, we're "trying", so we gave up a good player to get a >> different good player. > > We did lose the trade. It's not remotely the same. They got Cone to >push them over the top to win the World Series, not to get a strangle >hold on third place. So, when it works it's great, when it doesn't, it's horrible?Yeah, Only smart GMs win most of the time and the JPs loss most of thetime. I see. So, upgrading the production at 3rd by a lot is losing? Sure...


If you traded Halladay and Wells for Jetter you would upgrade SS but
lose the deal. That is for sure.

Quote:
>Good point, but you shouldn't get rid of them all like JP did, forcing >him to draft the brilliant Russ Adams ahead of Scott Kasmir. What if NONE of them are playing well?Isturis and Lopez were fine prospects. Instead you pass on a greatyoung arm in Kasmir to get Russ Adams? And this makes sense to you?Where's old Russ now. I know where Isturis and Lopez are? BTW did yousee Kasmir tonight he was awsome. Funny I didn't catch much of Adamsplaying. Kasmir is HYPED to be awesome. He may yet be. Right now, he's just pretty good (much WORSE W-L than Batista, whom you love to mention!). Here are two pitcher's records for 2005. Quick, tell me which one is Kazmir, and which one is Burnett? I said QUICK. Can't tell easily, can ya? G IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA 32 186.0 172 90 78 12 100 174 10 9 3.77 32 209.0 184 97 80 12 79 198 12 12 3.45


But Kazmir's 22 and only going to get better and he should have been a
Jay.
Quote:
Ok, so Burnett's been hurt this year, but he hasn't been horrible. Kazmir has more or less repeated his performance of last year. Burnett could again.
Quote:
Not all of those were on the team at the same time, IIRC. And, did any win a Cy Young during those years? ERA title? W-L title?Yeah, Dave Steib was alway competitrive in all pitching categories, PatHentgen won a Cy Young,
Not during the Gillick years - and during a year when the Jays sucked.
Quote:
Jack Morris was 21-6 one year, leading the league, Jimmy Key led in winsone year and Jim Clancy had the best ERA, Duane Ward and Tom Henke bothlead the league in saves.
Wins = team stat. ERA = individual stat. Saves = situational stat (you need lots of leads to get lots of saves).


Your point was the Jays pitching was average, and they never lead in
any category. The statments flat out wrong. The had consistantly great
pitching.
Quote:
Quote:
No they didn't all play at they same time but the pitching was farfrom average. It was great. You'd really rather have Ted Lilly andMarcum come on?
Marcum is our 5th starter.. Can I drag in stats of Jim Gott, Luis Leal, et al. then too?


Luis Leal was 13-8 one year. You'd rather have Towers?
Quote:
Quote:
There was a very nice summary over at battersbox.ca. Last year, the Jays had a good pitching staff, and mediocre offense. Given that we kept mostly the same pitchers, except that we replaced Batista with Ryan (and I'm hoping you don't say signing Ryan was bad?!?), we were hoping to get similar pitching results. Does that make sense? To expect a mostly-the-same pitching staff to repeat their performance? So, JP upgraded the offense. And he did a GREAT job. We are the league's BEST offense, or top 3-5, for almost any stat you care to name. However, the pitching imploded. Yes, SOME of that might have been expected, but... Could anyone have predicted that: 1) Towers would fall off a cliff (he pitched almost at Halladay levels for the last few months last year) 2) Chacin gets injured 3) NONE of our prospects: McGowan, Tallet, Marcum, Rosario, Janssen, etc were able to crack the rotation for good 4) Chulk, Frasor and Speier got worse 5) Schoeneweiss got MUCH worseWells, Rios, Johnson and Hinske all improved substancially and youcouldn't have predicted that and that had nothing to do with Ricciardi.
Actually, it's possible that the new coaches he hired at the AAA and MLB levels contributed. Especially for Rios.


Then why only Gord Ash picks improved? And if JP's AAA geniuses are so
great why are they in last place?
Quote:
Quote:
What's he going to next year open the vault for another Burnout orperhaps give Jansson a multi-million dollar deal? Either way we'llprobably still manage third. And the usual flock of myrmidons willblindly blame everything but JP; it's the payroll, the stadium, 911,"who could predict the pitching would suck?" But the truth is this guyis the worst GM in baseball.
So then, why aren't we the 30th worst team in baseball? Why are teams like KC SO MUCH WORSE, if JP is much worse than ALL OTHER GMs?


Because he inherted a pretty good farm system he's since raped. He's
got an exceptable payroll and resonable ownership.

Pittsburg, KC and Baltimore all have terrible owners whom have no
desire to win, think they can run the team or have no money. Neither
point is true here.
Quote:
Heck, do you know what it would take to sign Billy Beane, or Brian Cashman? If you do, please contact Ted Rogers. I'd love to see an upgrade on JP. However, I do not think that ANYONE is an upgrade on JP. Only some people, and most of those are already happily employed by our competition.
Quote:
JP addressed our weakness from last year (offense) quite well. If Towers had had "normal" starts, or Chacin doesn't get injured, we could easily be 5 games better right now, and fighting for a wild card.And if he selected Kasmir didn't run Carpenter, and Escober we'd winthe world series.
"didn't run Carpenter, and Escobar"? Carpenter had several mediocre years, followed by injury and even worse results. Did you want to us to resign Mark Sirotka, Joey Hamilton and Erik Hanson too? (Ash Gems!) Or did you see it coming? If so, then perhaps have a little patience with Burnett.. Escobar was to inconsistent as a closer and kept getting the numbness in his shoulder. Perhaps a new coach/trainer managed to figure out his problem? So, let's see: It's JP's fault that we didn't resign Escobar for A LOT, when, IIRC, we had Delgado's albatross of a contract to deal with, and that we didn't keep Carpenter? Carpenter was 49-50 after 6 years, just coming off injury. Sounds a lot like AJ Burnett, maybe.. But, in Burnett's case, it's a total writeoff, whereas we should have KNOWN Carpenter would pitch amazingly well, despite a career losing record.


Walt Jocketty seemed to know. Carpenter had a good strike out/ walk
ratio and kept the ball in the park. He just gave up a lot of hits;
with good D the guy's great. St. Loius picks him up for 300 grand. A Cy
winner for 300 thousand/year! JP could have signed him for half a mill.
Instead he signs a guy with the same record for 55 million buck more
than time what he could have got Carpenter for. There's your genius at
work.
Quote:
Honestly, why don't you admit that you've already decided ahead of time that JP is the worst GM ever, and NOTHING he does, even if he trades Hill for AROD, McDonald for Jeter, Zaun for Ortiz, Marcum for Liriano, Tallett for Kazmir and Rosario for Santana will ever change that. I think you just have a man-crush on the O-Dog, and because he got traded, you'll hate the very letters J and P for the rest of your existance.


I like the letter j. It's one of my favourites. To some degree you're
right. I don't trust or respect anything this guy does but it wasn't
always like that. When he first showed up I was optimistic. Then after
classless statement, 1 bad deal after another, a horrible depletion of
the farm, an attitude of consistant arrogance and one winning season in
five, I've become a little disillutioned.

And You are the opposite. You claim, "nothing is his fault", "he's done
a great job." "we could win 90 games." and "He hired exceptional minor
league coachesthat really contributed to the teams current success."

Whose fault is it? Katrina, 911 Ernie Whitt's? This years scapegaot.
Figure that one out.

The idea is to win, build a solid team and fill ine the missing pieces.
In 5 years he's had 1 winning season, and when he runs Wells it's not
getting any better. There's also no way in hell they're winning 90
games.

As for the minor league geniuses, AAA Syracuse last place, AA New
Hampshire last place and A Dunidin 2nd last place. Almost a trifecta!
And what does Godfrey do? Give him a contract extention through 2010.

For you, because you're a panglossian optimist, the glass is over
flowing. For me because I'm a realist the glass is bone dry.

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