Are M's close to contention?
Mariners may not need complete overhaul to be competitive in 2007

LARRY LARUE; The News Tribune
Published: October 3rd, 2006 01:00 AM

A year ago, the Seattle Mariners won 69 games, and only four teams in
major league baseball won fewer. This season, they won 78 times, a
higher total than 10 other teams.
None of those other teams, however, were in the American League West,
which shows how far the Mariners have come in a year, and how far they
need to go to become contenders in a division that has considered them
an afterthought since 2003.

No one really expected Seattle to contend this season - the most
optimistic picks last spring had them in a battle for third place.

And despite losing 17 of 19 games against Oakland, and that 11-game
road losing streak in August, and the lack of contributions from such
key figures as Eddie Guardado and Carl Everett, that's just what the
Mariners produced in 2006.

Going into the final weekend of the season, they trailed third place
Texas by three games - then won two of those three from the Rangers.

That said, the Mariners could have been so much better this season -
better, even, than they'd hoped.

What went wrong?

· Reliable closer Guardado was anything but, blowing three saves in
April alone. Add those three games to the win column, Seattle finishes
81-81.

· The heart of the lineup failed to hit early, and when Richie
Sexson (.213), Adrian Beltre (.189) and Carl Everett (.220) failed to
produce in April, the Mariners went 11-15. They didn't get back to
..500 until June 27.

· Center field became no man's land, literally. Jeremy Reed batted
..188 in 20 April games, Joe Borchard came and went after getting nine
at-bats. Matt Lawton couldn't play the position, nor could Shin Soo
Choo. Adam Jones showed promise but hit .216. Willie Bloomquist played
well defensively, but the job was never his. Until Ichiro Suzuki moved
there in late August, the position produced nothing offensively.

· Joel Piñeiro's long, slow career slide gained speed. After
losing seasons in 2004 and 2005, Piñeiro won twice in a week in May
and then completely collapsed, finishing 8-13 with a 6.36 earned run
average.

· Oakland. On April 6, Gil Meche beat the Athletics in Safeco Field,
6-2. The next 15 times the two teams met, Oakland won. If Seattle had
gone 6-12 against the Athletics, as they did a year ago, Oakland ends
the regular season tied with the Angels - and the Mariners finish the
year 82-80.

· That one trip. On Aug. 9, the Mariners were 56-57, then flew to
Texas, Oakland and Anaheim. They lost all 11 games on that swing,
returning 56-68. "If we have a bad trip and just go 4-7, the whole
year might have been different," J.J. Putz said. "Three of those
games we lost by one run ..."

· Injuries. All teams have them, but the final two months of their
season the Mariners lost the strongest part of their team - the
bullpen. Rafael Soriano, Julio Mateo, rookie Derek Lowe, all
late-inning right-handers, were lost. Leads were lost and close games
got away between the sixth and eighth innings.

There were other, less obvious issues, including clubhouse leadership
and attitude. Sexson, a veteran whose presence hasn't been a factor
since arriving last year, may have best illustrated why on the final
day of the season.

"I'm probably prouder of myself this season than any in my
career," he said. "After the start I had, to finish where I did,
I'm proud of that."

So what's the problem?

This: Sexson batted .213 in April, .198 in May and the Mariners lost 14
games in the stretch by two runs or fewer, entering June 23-32. By the
time Sexson got hot, midway through August, too many close games had
gotten away - games his bat helped decide.

Similarly, Ichiro all but disappeared in August. After stealing nine
consecutive bases in July, setting a team record with 28 steals in a
row, Ichiro batted just .233 in August. Worse, he stopped running.

Ichiro had 27 hits that month, drew seven walks - and tried to steal
two bases.

He was successful on both, but by the end of August manager Mike
Hargrove sat him down and told him, "You need to be more
aggressive."

Ichiro's response? "I'm a conservative player."

None the less, Ichiro was 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts in September.

The Mariners never really got hot as a team, or as a rotation. Jamie
Moyer started nine games in which the team failed to score while he was
pitching. In one three-start stretch, Jarrod Washburn allowed just six
runs - and the Mariner just four. He lost all three games.

Raul Ibañez was moved to cleanup, a spot he'd never batted for any
length of time in his career. He responded with the best season of his
career when virtually no other veteran approached his output.

Rookie catcher Kenji Johjima was an offensive factor, but not even
above average behind the plate. His pitch calling and pitch stopping
frustrated Mariners pitchers all season.

Looking ahead

There are 41/2 months before spring training, nearly six months before
opening day 2007. What has to happen to increase the speed of
improvement - to accelerate from mediocrity to contention?

Start with the easy part: Sexson and Beltre, the two highest paid
players in franchise history, have to do better than bat fifth and
second in the lineup. Ichiro has to play center field aggressively and
run the bases aggressively - at times this season, he wouldn't
attempt a stolen base for fear of being caught and losing his AL-record
streak.

The Mariners need two starting pitchers, and the assumption for months
has been they'll pursue two free agents - Japan's Daisuke
Matsuzaka and San Francisco free agent Jason Schmidt.

Not so fast.

To even offer Matsuzaka a contract, a team first has to win the right
by entering sealed bids once his Japanese team "posts" his
availability. In the same process, Seattle bid more than $13 million in
2000 for Ichiro.

Figure the fee hasn't come down.

Will the Mariners throw that kind of money at a player just for the
right to try to sign him? In one word, no.

They will on one condition - if Japanese ownership tells them to. If
not, they'll use their money in other ways.

corner outfielder or DH type with a history of production.

To fill in the rotation with another solid starter, they have talked
about packaging such players as Ben Broussard, Reed and one of their
young, talented relievers.

The Mariners would love to get a left-handed hitting reserve catcher
and pad their bench with Safeco Field-type hitters - spray hitters
with more speed than power.

Then, of course, Hargrove will have to use that bench.

The bullpen is set.

The infield is set.

The starting catcher is set.

Ibañez will either return to left field or be the DH. Ichiro has said
he will play center.

Improving the Mariners isn't a matter of rebuilding the team. The
Mariners have three starting pitchers - Washburn, Felix Hernandez and
either Jake Woods, Cha Seung Baek or Ryan Feierabend.

What they need may be the hardest thing to find in baseball - a top
of the rotation pitcher. Or two.

And a team-first, me-second attitude in the clubhouse.

Hargrove and his staff need a leaner, meaner approach to winning, one
that demands aggressiveness and the willingness to make outs to score
runs.

Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez and players like Chris Snelling, Mike
Morse and Bloomquist can be factors in that kind of game.

A lot has to happen in a short time, then the moves have to prove out
on the field quickly.

Next April, the Mariners open with Oakland, face the Red Sox, Twins,
Angels, Rangers and Indians. If they emerge from the month with a
winning record, they'll have something to build on and already have
proven themselves contenders in their division.

If they lose April, they're likely to lose Hargrove and general
manager Bill Bavasi in the process.

On the right path?

Seattle's record - and number of games out of first in the AL West
- since 2004:

Season W L Pct. GB

2004 63 99 .389 29

2005 69 93 .426 26

2006 78 84 .181 15

Ed Varner wrote:

In a word -- NO.

If Seattle's management think they are going to sign Jason Schmidt,
they are out of touch with reality. They are equally out of touch with
reality if they think overpaid bad players are going to be overpaid
good players next year. They are unwilling to recognize that signing
Beltre was a colossal blunder, something everyone else in baseball
recognized the moment the ink was dry on his contract.

The M's are not going to contend for a very long time.

"Ed Varner" <Ed.Varner@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1160032299.133305.140020@c28g2000cwb.googlegr oups.com...
Are M's close to contention?


As long as we have the same General Manager who doesnt know a good player if
it slapped him in the face. NO

As long as we have the "GOOD GUY" Manager NO

Pinnella was our best bet, but the ownership and GM wouldnt get him the 1 or
2 players we needed to finish it.


So NO, not untill the Ownership is committed and changes GMs and Manager.

Has beens do not a ChampionShip Make. Just ask the Yankees .