Hollinger seems to have given ESPN exlusive rights to his thoughts for
2006-2007 -- which is a total mistake, I consider myself an entirely
typical person and have been trolling Amazon and loitering in the Rose
Room at Powell's itching to give him $25 to know what to think in the
next twelve months (thus I don't feel guilty posting his very
copyrighted Insider material -- anyway, "Jeremey Wilson" is an obvious
pseudonym; my real name's Captain69@aol.com) -- but he picks the the
Cavs to win the East, and by implication puts them at about 60 wins. I
think he gives his theory more credence than reality in a couple places
(I doubt Shannon Brown starts at all this year, and probably won't see
more than 20 minutes a night till February, at least, and Marshall, at
least, continuing to suck is perfectly plausible, given his age), but:
John Hollinger picks the Cavs to win the East!

***
Cleveland's LeBron-led basketball revival saw more progress, as King
James continued on his path to basketball domination and brought the
Cavs along for the ride. The third-year prodigy finished second in MVP
voting after leading Cleveland to a 50-win season, and put the Cavs
into the second round of the playoffs for the first time since Craig
Ehlo was flailing at Michael Jordan. As an added plus, he nearly led
Cleveland to a stunning second-round upset of the Pistons, as the Cavs
went up 3-2 before falling in seven games.

It's hard to overstate how good James was. He finished third in scoring
at 31.4 points per game, and threw in 7.7 boards and 6.6 assists to
finish with the league's second-best PER (player efficiency rating).
(Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki edged James by a whisker.) He not only played
better than anyone else in the league, but more -- a whopping 42.5
minutes per game. Though he seemed tireless, the Cavs probably erred by
playing their young star so much -- they have to be thinking long-term
with the man who is the team's future.

James' brilliance helped cover up multiple failures at other positions.
The Cavs did some serious shopping in the summer of 2005, coming away
with a free-agent haul that included guards Damon Jones and Larry
Hughes and forward Donyell Marshall. All three ended up being massive
disappointments. Hughes missed 46 games with a wrist injury and was
unimpressive when he played, seeming to have trouble adjusting to
playing without the ball. Jones left his shot in Miami, as the alleged
shooting ace hit only 38.7 percent from the floor. Marshall also
struggled -- one of the league's top shooters the previous two seasons,
he made only 32.4 percent on 3-pointers.

Taken one by one, each would have been a major bummer. But as a group,
their performance was shocking. The trio had three of the top four PER
drops in the NBA last season among players who had played 1,000 minutes
in both 2004-05 and 2005-06. Hughes' plummet was particularly
noteworthy, as it was the NBA's greatest decline.

Top PER drops, 2005-06 (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team 2004-05 PER 2005-06 PER Change
Larry Hughes Cle 21.63 14.03 -7.60
Jamaal Tinsley Ind 16.57 12.10 -6.47
Donyell Marshall Cle 19.92 37.5 -6.46
Damon Jones Cle 15.57 9.28 -6.29
Desmond Mason NOK 14.71 9.17 -5.54

That three key players could have such staggering declines while the
team won 50 games anyway is fairly remarkable, and is a testament to
what a wonderful year James had. But he wasn't alone. Three other
frontcourt players stepped up to give Cleveland perhaps the most
effective front line in the game. The most important was Zydrunas
Ilgauskas, who played only 29.3 minutes per game, but performed at an
All-Star level while on the court. His ability to score in the post
gave the Cavs an important second option to give James a break once in
a while.

And two energetic power forwards, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao,
rounded out the rotation in style. Both shot over 50 percent, crashed
the boards and gave defenses problems with their quickness and energy.
Thanks to the solid frontcourt, Cleveland was one of the best
rebounding teams in basketball. The Cavs were particularly good on the
defensive boards, where they claimed 75.7 percent of opponent misses,
the fourth-best rate in the league.

It's a good thing the frontcourt was so good, because the backcourt
couldn't possibly have been worse. The point was an open sore all
season thanks to Jones' struggles, with veteran Eric Snow taking over
and playing decent defense but absolutely horrid offense. And with
Hughes missing 46 games, the Cavs struggled to find a reliable wingman
all year. The Cavs received tragicomic performances from Ira Newble,
Luke Jackson, Stephen Graham and Sasha Pavlovic before a deal for
Ronald Murray at the trade deadline stopped the bleeding.

It's very important that people understand just how bad those four
players were, because it has important implications for this season.
First, let's backtrack a bit. You'll sometimes hear analysts,
especially in baseball, use the term "replacement level." This
generally means the quality of player that can be had as an in-season
free agent, or a CBA or D-League call-up, or somebody of that ilk.
Somebody like Rick Brunson, basically.

In terms of PER, replacement level is normally around 10.00. It's lower
for an exceptional defensive player, which is why you'll see some
specialists keep their jobs even if their PER is in single digits, but
those are exceptional cases. In general, it's rare for a player to keep
his spot in the league, let alone the rotation, if his production stays
below replacement level for long.

The corollary to this is what I call the "warm body effect." This is
when a player in a given season performs so badly that replacing him
with someone -- anyone, no matter how lightly regarded -- is almost
guaranteed to make the team better.

In Cleveland's case, Newble, Pavlovic, Jackson and Graham played a
combined 1,656 minutes on the wings, and had an average PER of 6.30.
These guys weren't just below replacement level, they were way below
replacement level. And unlike most players who perform this poorly,
Cleveland didn't replace them quickly -- or rather, the Cavs did
replace them, but the next guy ended up being just as bad. As a result,
they got 1,656 minutes -- more than 20 minutes a game -- from this
motley quartet.

Thus, the warm body effect for the Cavs is likely to be absolutely
enormous this year. If they just replace that (lack of) production with
somebody who is merely awful -- let's say a PER of 10 with mediocre
defense -- it will add four games to their win total. Replace it with
somebody who's actually good and things really get interesting. For
instance, if you replace it with 1,656 minutes of Hughes' production,
even at his diminished level of a year ago, it would add seven wins.
(If you're wondering, a point of PER over the course of 2,000 minutes
usually is worth about one win per season, which is how I've derived
this estimate.)

So that's what is so amazing about the Cavs' season -- it's not that
they won 50 games. It's that they won 50 games even though the season
was a total disaster. Their big three free agents couldn't possibly
have been any worse, their point guards were ruinously bad and the
wingmen who replaced Hughes for half the year would have had trouble
starting in the Big Ten.

Yes, there are things to work on here -- the offense was unimaginative
at best in the playoffs, the Cavs need more perimeter shooters and they
have to be a little less reliant on LeBron. But they had a heck of a
year considering all the things that went wrong.

OFFSEASON MOVES

It was an awfully quiet offseason in Cleveland, but the Cavs took care
of the most important piece of business: getting James to ink an
extension. It's only for three years, so he could still head for
greener pastures in 2010, but it at least buys the Cavs more time to
build a championship team around their superstar.

Gooden

· Re-signed Gooden. The Cavs were wise to wait the summer out and
hope that Gooden's restricted status would scare other teams away from
making serious offers. That's how it played out, and it left Gooden to
accept a reasonable three-year, $23 million deal from the Cavs that
preserves some of Cleveland's space under the luxury tax threshold. Of
course, that might be a temporary phenomenon -- once James' extension
kicks in and the Cavs re-sign Varejao next summer, they're still
looking at a tax hit unless they can dump a salary or two.

· Drafted Shannon Brown. The first-round pick was a solid move by the
Cavs to address the need for shooting and perimeter defense. Brown
isn't a natural point guard but can defend the position, so he may be
able to start along with Hughes and James.


Pollard

· Signed Scot Pollard, let Alan Henderson leave. A mild upgrade made
with an eye toward a possible matchup against Miami in the playoffs.
Pollard has had back problems and doesn't do much offensively, but he's
a physical defender who can stand up to Shaq.

· Signed David Wesley, let Murray leave. Murray was the best the Cavs
could come up with under the circumstances, but his slashing game
didn't fit their needs as well as Wesley's long-range shooting.
However, Wesley looked absolutely finished last year, so it's not clear
if he's got anything left in the tank. Cleveland wasn't foolish on the
contract -- only the first year is guaranteed.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Frontcourt depth. Because of all the attention on LeBron, the Cavs'
frontcourt doesn't always get its due. But Cleveland has a five-man
rotation that's as good as any in basketball, and each brings different
skills to the table.

Ilgauskas is the post scorer, with the ability to shoot over defenders
at 7-3 and a great touch for his size; he's also the only Cav besides
LeBron who commands a double team. Gooden is the jumping bean, a
rebounding force who is comfortable making plays off the ball or
catching and shooting from 15 feet. Varejao's trademark is relentless
effort, making him another force on the glass as well as the most
energetic defender of the group and the best at moving without the
ball. Marshall is the 3-point specialist, brought in to help stretch
out collapsing defenses and open the paint for James and Hughes. And
Pollard is the muscle guy, whose job is to apportion his six fouls to
have maximum impact.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Shooting. The one glaring weakness on this team is the lack of outside
shooting. Jones and Marshall were supposed to correct that shortcoming
a year ago, but both struggled from outside despite getting numerous
wide-open opportunities. Hughes and Snow aren't good outside shooters
and the big men can't step out beyond 15 feet, so opposing defenses
have an open invitation to collapse and wait for LeBron on his drives.
This is another reason the offense looks so stagnant at times -- it's
tough to get penetration when the other team has five defenders waiting
inside the paint.

While the Cavs' starting lineup doesn't figure to have much shooting
punch, they've at least addressed it with the bench. Brown and Wesley
both are spot-up shooters who should be able to punish zone defenses,
while one would think Marshall and Jones will see their 3-point
percentages bounce back from last year's disappointments. But don't be
surprised if Cavs GM Danny Ferry keeps shopping for another gunner
during the season to help open more space for LeBron.

2006-07 OUTLOOK

If you haven't gathered this already, I think the Cavs are going to be
quite a bit better than people expect. As long as James stays in one
piece, the 50-win total from last season is pretty much the floor for
this club. While the Cavs have question marks, they're almost all
positive question marks. What I mean is that, compared to last year,
the Cavs improve quite a bit with any "yes" answers.

For instance, although Hughes is injury-prone it's hard to imagine him
missing more than the 46 games he missed last year. And if he sticks
around for 70 games, the Cavs become much, much better. Then there's
the trio of Hughes, Marshall and Jones -- perhaps they can't bounce
back from last year's disappointments, but if even one of them does, it
will add a few wins. And if they all do, look out.

It's the same as you move on down the line. If the Cavs get anything
from Brown or Wesley, that's another positive, because they got nothing
from those spots a year ago. And as the primary backups behind James
and Hughes on the wings, almost anything they do will be better than
the wastrels who filled the role a year ago -- The Warm Body Effect in
action.

Finally, it's not hard to improve the team with a few touches around
the trade deadline. Picking up an inexpensive veteran shooter or a
role-playing wing man isn't a big challenge at that time of year, and
those are the only pieces the Cavs are missing.

In short, I think King James' time is going to be sooner than some
folks expect. Somebody has to win the East this year, and the other
contenders all have obvious flaws. So does this team, of course, but
between James' brilliance and the strength of the frontcourt, I expect
the Cavs to be the last Eastern team standing.
***

--
Jeremey

"Jeremey Wilson" <noaddressgiven@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1160373720.753567.258650@h48g2000cwc.googlegr oups.com...
Hollinger seems to have given ESPN exlusive rights to his thoughts for
2006-2007 -- which is a total mistake, I consider myself an entirely
typical person and have been trolling Amazon and loitering in the Rose
Room at Powell's itching to give him $25 to know what to think in the
next twelve months (thus I don't feel guilty posting his very
copyrighted Insider material -- anyway, "Jeremey Wilson" is an obvious
pseudonym; my real name's Captain69@aol.com) -- but he picks the the
Cavs to win the East, and by implication puts them at about 60 wins. I
think he gives his theory more credence than reality in a couple places
(I doubt Shannon Brown starts at all this year, and probably won't see
more than 20 minutes a night till February, at least, and Marshall, at
least, continuing to suck is perfectly plausible, given his age), but:
John Hollinger picks the Cavs to win the East!

***
Cleveland's LeBron-led basketball revival saw more progress, as King
James continued on his path to basketball domination and brought the
Cavs along for the ride. The third-year prodigy finished second in MVP
voting after leading Cleveland to a 50-win season, and put the Cavs
into the second round of the playoffs for the first time since Craig
Ehlo was flailing at Michael Jordan. As an added plus, he nearly led
Cleveland to a stunning second-round upset of the Pistons, as the Cavs
went up 3-2 before falling in seven games.

It's hard to overstate how good James was. He finished third in scoring
at 31.4 points per game, and threw in 7.7 boards and 6.6 assists to
finish with the league's second-best PER (player efficiency rating).
(Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki edged James by a whisker.) He not only played
better than anyone else in the league, but more -- a whopping 42.5
minutes per game. Though he seemed tireless, the Cavs probably erred by
playing their young star so much -- they have to be thinking long-term
with the man who is the team's future.

James' brilliance helped cover up multiple failures at other positions.
The Cavs did some serious shopping in the summer of 2005, coming away
with a free-agent haul that included guards Damon Jones and Larry
Hughes and forward Donyell Marshall. All three ended up being massive
disappointments. Hughes missed 46 games with a wrist injury and was
unimpressive when he played, seeming to have trouble adjusting to
playing without the ball. Jones left his shot in Miami, as the alleged
shooting ace hit only 38.7 percent from the floor. Marshall also
struggled -- one of the league's top shooters the previous two seasons,
he made only 32.4 percent on 3-pointers.

Taken one by one, each would have been a major bummer. But as a group,
their performance was shocking. The trio had three of the top four PER
drops in the NBA last season among players who had played 1,000 minutes
in both 2004-05 and 2005-06. Hughes' plummet was particularly
noteworthy, as it was the NBA's greatest decline.

Top PER drops, 2005-06 (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team 2004-05 PER 2005-06 PER Change
Larry Hughes Cle 21.63 14.03 -7.60
Jamaal Tinsley Ind 16.57 12.10 -6.47
Donyell Marshall Cle 19.92 37.5 -6.46
Damon Jones Cle 15.57 9.28 -6.29
Desmond Mason NOK 14.71 9.17 -5.54

That three key players could have such staggering declines while the
team won 50 games anyway is fairly remarkable, and is a testament to
what a wonderful year James had. But he wasn't alone. Three other
frontcourt players stepped up to give Cleveland perhaps the most
effective front line in the game. The most important was Zydrunas
Ilgauskas, who played only 29.3 minutes per game, but performed at an
All-Star level while on the court. His ability to score in the post
gave the Cavs an important second option to give James a break once in
a while.

And two energetic power forwards, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao,
rounded out the rotation in style. Both shot over 50 percent, crashed
the boards and gave defenses problems with their quickness and energy.
Thanks to the solid frontcourt, Cleveland was one of the best
rebounding teams in basketball. The Cavs were particularly good on the
defensive boards, where they claimed 75.7 percent of opponent misses,
the fourth-best rate in the league.

It's a good thing the frontcourt was so good, because the backcourt
couldn't possibly have been worse. The point was an open sore all
season thanks to Jones' struggles, with veteran Eric Snow taking over
and playing decent defense but absolutely horrid offense. And with
Hughes missing 46 games, the Cavs struggled to find a reliable wingman
all year. The Cavs received tragicomic performances from Ira Newble,
Luke Jackson, Stephen Graham and Sasha Pavlovic before a deal for
Ronald Murray at the trade deadline stopped the bleeding.

It's very important that people understand just how bad those four
players were, because it has important implications for this season.
First, let's backtrack a bit. You'll sometimes hear analysts,
especially in baseball, use the term "replacement level." This
generally means the quality of player that can be had as an in-season
free agent, or a CBA or D-League call-up, or somebody of that ilk.
Somebody like Rick Brunson, basically.

In terms of PER, replacement level is normally around 10.00. It's lower
for an exceptional defensive player, which is why you'll see some
specialists keep their jobs even if their PER is in single digits, but
those are exceptional cases. In general, it's rare for a player to keep
his spot in the league, let alone the rotation, if his production stays
below replacement level for long.

The corollary to this is what I call the "warm body effect." This is
when a player in a given season performs so badly that replacing him
with someone -- anyone, no matter how lightly regarded -- is almost
guaranteed to make the team better.

In Cleveland's case, Newble, Pavlovic, Jackson and Graham played a
combined 1,656 minutes on the wings, and had an average PER of 6.30.
These guys weren't just below replacement level, they were way below
replacement level. And unlike most players who perform this poorly,
Cleveland didn't replace them quickly -- or rather, the Cavs did
replace them, but the next guy ended up being just as bad. As a result,
they got 1,656 minutes -- more than 20 minutes a game -- from this
motley quartet.

Thus, the warm body effect for the Cavs is likely to be absolutely
enormous this year. If they just replace that (lack of) production with
somebody who is merely awful -- let's say a PER of 10 with mediocre
defense -- it will add four games to their win total. Replace it with
somebody who's actually good and things really get interesting. For
instance, if you replace it with 1,656 minutes of Hughes' production,
even at his diminished level of a year ago, it would add seven wins.
(If you're wondering, a point of PER over the course of 2,000 minutes
usually is worth about one win per season, which is how I've derived
this estimate.)

So that's what is so amazing about the Cavs' season -- it's not that
they won 50 games. It's that they won 50 games even though the season
was a total disaster. Their big three free agents couldn't possibly
have been any worse, their point guards were ruinously bad and the
wingmen who replaced Hughes for half the year would have had trouble
starting in the Big Ten.

Yes, there are things to work on here -- the offense was unimaginative
at best in the playoffs, the Cavs need more perimeter shooters and they
have to be a little less reliant on LeBron. But they had a heck of a
year considering all the things that went wrong.

OFFSEASON MOVES

It was an awfully quiet offseason in Cleveland, but the Cavs took care
of the most important piece of business: getting James to ink an
extension. It's only for three years, so he could still head for
greener pastures in 2010, but it at least buys the Cavs more time to
build a championship team around their superstar.

Gooden

· Re-signed Gooden. The Cavs were wise to wait the summer out and
hope that Gooden's restricted status would scare other teams away from
making serious offers. That's how it played out, and it left Gooden to
accept a reasonable three-year, $23 million deal from the Cavs that
preserves some of Cleveland's space under the luxury tax threshold. Of
course, that might be a temporary phenomenon -- once James' extension
kicks in and the Cavs re-sign Varejao next summer, they're still
looking at a tax hit unless they can dump a salary or two.

· Drafted Shannon Brown. The first-round pick was a solid move by the
Cavs to address the need for shooting and perimeter defense. Brown
isn't a natural point guard but can defend the position, so he may be
able to start along with Hughes and James.


Pollard

· Signed Scot Pollard, let Alan Henderson leave. A mild upgrade made
with an eye toward a possible matchup against Miami in the playoffs.
Pollard has had back problems and doesn't do much offensively, but he's
a physical defender who can stand up to Shaq.

· Signed David Wesley, let Murray leave. Murray was the best the Cavs
could come up with under the circumstances, but his slashing game
didn't fit their needs as well as Wesley's long-range shooting.
However, Wesley looked absolutely finished last year, so it's not clear
if he's got anything left in the tank. Cleveland wasn't foolish on the
contract -- only the first year is guaranteed.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Frontcourt depth. Because of all the attention on LeBron, the Cavs'
frontcourt doesn't always get its due. But Cleveland has a five-man
rotation that's as good as any in basketball, and each brings different
skills to the table.

Ilgauskas is the post scorer, with the ability to shoot over defenders
at 7-3 and a great touch for his size; he's also the only Cav besides
LeBron who commands a double team. Gooden is the jumping bean, a
rebounding force who is comfortable making plays off the ball or
catching and shooting from 15 feet. Varejao's trademark is relentless
effort, making him another force on the glass as well as the most
energetic defender of the group and the best at moving without the
ball. Marshall is the 3-point specialist, brought in to help stretch
out collapsing defenses and open the paint for James and Hughes. And
Pollard is the muscle guy, whose job is to apportion his six fouls to
have maximum impact.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Shooting. The one glaring weakness on this team is the lack of outside
shooting. Jones and Marshall were supposed to correct that shortcoming
a year ago, but both struggled from outside despite getting numerous
wide-open opportunities. Hughes and Snow aren't good outside shooters
and the big men can't step out beyond 15 feet, so opposing defenses
have an open invitation to collapse and wait for LeBron on his drives.
This is another reason the offense looks so stagnant at times -- it's
tough to get penetration when the other team has five defenders waiting
inside the paint.

While the Cavs' starting lineup doesn't figure to have much shooting
punch, they've at least addressed it with the bench. Brown and Wesley
both are spot-up shooters who should be able to punish zone defenses,
while one would think Marshall and Jones will see their 3-point
percentages bounce back from last year's disappointments. But don't be
surprised if Cavs GM Danny Ferry keeps shopping for another gunner
during the season to help open more space for LeBron.

2006-07 OUTLOOK

If you haven't gathered this already, I think the Cavs are going to be
quite a bit better than people expect. As long as James stays in one
piece, the 50-win total from last season is pretty much the floor for
this club. While the Cavs have question marks, they're almost all
positive question marks. What I mean is that, compared to last year,
the Cavs improve quite a bit with any "yes" answers.

For instance, although Hughes is injury-prone it's hard to imagine him
missing more than the 46 games he missed last year. And if he sticks
around for 70 games, the Cavs become much, much better. Then there's
the trio of Hughes, Marshall and Jones -- perhaps they can't bounce
back from last year's disappointments, but if even one of them does, it
will add a few wins. And if they all do, look out.

It's the same as you move on down the line. If the Cavs get anything
from Brown or Wesley, that's another positive, because they got nothing
from those spots a year ago. And as the primary backups behind James
and Hughes on the wings, almost anything they do will be better than
the wastrels who filled the role a year ago -- The Warm Body Effect in
action.

Finally, it's not hard to improve the team with a few touches around
the trade deadline. Picking up an inexpensive veteran shooter or a
role-playing wing man isn't a big challenge at that time of year, and
those are the only pieces the Cavs are missing.

In short, I think King James' time is going to be sooner than some
folks expect. Somebody has to win the East this year, and the other
contenders all have obvious flaws. So does this team, of course, but
between James' brilliance and the strength of the frontcourt, I expect
the Cavs to be the last Eastern team standing.
***

--
Jeremey

I find nothing I disagree with in his assessment of last year's team and I
just recently posted that I saw them winning 55 in the tough division. I
agree that Brown will not start and will probably not see regular playing
time until later in the season. Marshall reported in good shape, having
worked with a personal trainer and also on his inside game. If he doesn't
get it together this year......the Cavs will not win their division. How
many games we get out of Hughes is anyone's guess (he is still not 100%).
Jones also came in the best condition of his career. But he can't play
defense, which is why Brown and Wesley figure to get his minutes.

Barring injury, 60 wins is certainly not out of the question. my guess is
between 55-60 because of our division. One thing for sure is that is is fun
to be a Cavs fan. it has been a long time since I have so looked to the
season beginning.

Keith

"Jeremey Wilson" <noaddressgiven@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1160373720.753567.258650@h48g2000cwc.googlegr oups.com...
Hollinger seems to have given ESPN exlusive rights to his thoughts for
2006-2007 -- which is a total mistake, I consider myself an entirely
typical person and have been trolling Amazon and loitering in the Rose
Room at Powell's itching to give him $25 to know what to think in the
next twelve months (thus I don't feel guilty posting his very
copyrighted Insider material -- anyway, "Jeremey Wilson" is an obvious
pseudonym; my real name's Captain69@aol.com) -- but he picks the the
Cavs to win the East, and by implication puts them at about 60 wins. I
think he gives his theory more credence than reality in a couple places
(I doubt Shannon Brown starts at all this year, and probably won't see
more than 20 minutes a night till February, at least, and Marshall, at
least, continuing to suck is perfectly plausible, given his age), but:
John Hollinger picks the Cavs to win the East!

***
Cleveland's LeBron-led basketball revival saw more progress, as King
James continued on his path to basketball domination and brought the
Cavs along for the ride. The third-year prodigy finished second in MVP
voting after leading Cleveland to a 50-win season, and put the Cavs
into the second round of the playoffs for the first time since Craig
Ehlo was flailing at Michael Jordan. As an added plus, he nearly led
Cleveland to a stunning second-round upset of the Pistons, as the Cavs
went up 3-2 before falling in seven games.

It's hard to overstate how good James was. He finished third in scoring
at 31.4 points per game, and threw in 7.7 boards and 6.6 assists to
finish with the league's second-best PER (player efficiency rating).
(Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki edged James by a whisker.) He not only played
better than anyone else in the league, but more -- a whopping 42.5
minutes per game. Though he seemed tireless, the Cavs probably erred by
playing their young star so much -- they have to be thinking long-term
with the man who is the team's future.

James' brilliance helped cover up multiple failures at other positions.
The Cavs did some serious shopping in the summer of 2005, coming away
with a free-agent haul that included guards Damon Jones and Larry
Hughes and forward Donyell Marshall. All three ended up being massive
disappointments. Hughes missed 46 games with a wrist injury and was
unimpressive when he played, seeming to have trouble adjusting to
playing without the ball. Jones left his shot in Miami, as the alleged
shooting ace hit only 38.7 percent from the floor. Marshall also
struggled -- one of the league's top shooters the previous two seasons,
he made only 32.4 percent on 3-pointers.

Taken one by one, each would have been a major bummer. But as a group,
their performance was shocking. The trio had three of the top four PER
drops in the NBA last season among players who had played 1,000 minutes
in both 2004-05 and 2005-06. Hughes' plummet was particularly
noteworthy, as it was the NBA's greatest decline.

Top PER drops, 2005-06 (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team 2004-05 PER 2005-06 PER Change
Larry Hughes Cle 21.63 14.03 -7.60
Jamaal Tinsley Ind 16.57 12.10 -6.47
Donyell Marshall Cle 19.92 37.5 -6.46
Damon Jones Cle 15.57 9.28 -6.29
Desmond Mason NOK 14.71 9.17 -5.54

That three key players could have such staggering declines while the
team won 50 games anyway is fairly remarkable, and is a testament to
what a wonderful year James had. But he wasn't alone. Three other
frontcourt players stepped up to give Cleveland perhaps the most
effective front line in the game. The most important was Zydrunas
Ilgauskas, who played only 29.3 minutes per game, but performed at an
All-Star level while on the court. His ability to score in the post
gave the Cavs an important second option to give James a break once in
a while.

And two energetic power forwards, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao,
rounded out the rotation in style. Both shot over 50 percent, crashed
the boards and gave defenses problems with their quickness and energy.
Thanks to the solid frontcourt, Cleveland was one of the best
rebounding teams in basketball. The Cavs were particularly good on the
defensive boards, where they claimed 75.7 percent of opponent misses,
the fourth-best rate in the league.

It's a good thing the frontcourt was so good, because the backcourt
couldn't possibly have been worse. The point was an open sore all
season thanks to Jones' struggles, with veteran Eric Snow taking over
and playing decent defense but absolutely horrid offense. And with
Hughes missing 46 games, the Cavs struggled to find a reliable wingman
all year. The Cavs received tragicomic performances from Ira Newble,
Luke Jackson, Stephen Graham and Sasha Pavlovic before a deal for
Ronald Murray at the trade deadline stopped the bleeding.

It's very important that people understand just how bad those four
players were, because it has important implications for this season.
First, let's backtrack a bit. You'll sometimes hear analysts,
especially in baseball, use the term "replacement level." This
generally means the quality of player that can be had as an in-season
free agent, or a CBA or D-League call-up, or somebody of that ilk.
Somebody like Rick Brunson, basically.

In terms of PER, replacement level is normally around 10.00. It's lower
for an exceptional defensive player, which is why you'll see some
specialists keep their jobs even if their PER is in single digits, but
those are exceptional cases. In general, it's rare for a player to keep
his spot in the league, let alone the rotation, if his production stays
below replacement level for long.

The corollary to this is what I call the "warm body effect." This is
when a player in a given season performs so badly that replacing him
with someone -- anyone, no matter how lightly regarded -- is almost
guaranteed to make the team better.

In Cleveland's case, Newble, Pavlovic, Jackson and Graham played a
combined 1,656 minutes on the wings, and had an average PER of 6.30.
These guys weren't just below replacement level, they were way below
replacement level. And unlike most players who perform this poorly,
Cleveland didn't replace them quickly -- or rather, the Cavs did
replace them, but the next guy ended up being just as bad. As a result,
they got 1,656 minutes -- more than 20 minutes a game -- from this
motley quartet.

Thus, the warm body effect for the Cavs is likely to be absolutely
enormous this year. If they just replace that (lack of) production with
somebody who is merely awful -- let's say a PER of 10 with mediocre
defense -- it will add four games to their win total. Replace it with
somebody who's actually good and things really get interesting. For
instance, if you replace it with 1,656 minutes of Hughes' production,
even at his diminished level of a year ago, it would add seven wins.
(If you're wondering, a point of PER over the course of 2,000 minutes
usually is worth about one win per season, which is how I've derived
this estimate.)

So that's what is so amazing about the Cavs' season -- it's not that
they won 50 games. It's that they won 50 games even though the season
was a total disaster. Their big three free agents couldn't possibly
have been any worse, their point guards were ruinously bad and the
wingmen who replaced Hughes for half the year would have had trouble
starting in the Big Ten.

Yes, there are things to work on here -- the offense was unimaginative
at best in the playoffs, the Cavs need more perimeter shooters and they
have to be a little less reliant on LeBron. But they had a heck of a
year considering all the things that went wrong.

OFFSEASON MOVES

It was an awfully quiet offseason in Cleveland, but the Cavs took care
of the most important piece of business: getting James to ink an
extension. It's only for three years, so he could still head for
greener pastures in 2010, but it at least buys the Cavs more time to
build a championship team around their superstar.

Gooden

· Re-signed Gooden. The Cavs were wise to wait the summer out and
hope that Gooden's restricted status would scare other teams away from
making serious offers. That's how it played out, and it left Gooden to
accept a reasonable three-year, $23 million deal from the Cavs that
preserves some of Cleveland's space under the luxury tax threshold. Of
course, that might be a temporary phenomenon -- once James' extension
kicks in and the Cavs re-sign Varejao next summer, they're still
looking at a tax hit unless they can dump a salary or two.

· Drafted Shannon Brown. The first-round pick was a solid move by the
Cavs to address the need for shooting and perimeter defense. Brown
isn't a natural point guard but can defend the position, so he may be
able to start along with Hughes and James.


Pollard

· Signed Scot Pollard, let Alan Henderson leave. A mild upgrade made
with an eye toward a possible matchup against Miami in the playoffs.
Pollard has had back problems and doesn't do much offensively, but he's
a physical defender who can stand up to Shaq.

· Signed David Wesley, let Murray leave. Murray was the best the Cavs
could come up with under the circumstances, but his slashing game
didn't fit their needs as well as Wesley's long-range shooting.
However, Wesley looked absolutely finished last year, so it's not clear
if he's got anything left in the tank. Cleveland wasn't foolish on the
contract -- only the first year is guaranteed.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Frontcourt depth. Because of all the attention on LeBron, the Cavs'
frontcourt doesn't always get its due. But Cleveland has a five-man
rotation that's as good as any in basketball, and each brings different
skills to the table.

Ilgauskas is the post scorer, with the ability to shoot over defenders
at 7-3 and a great touch for his size; he's also the only Cav besides
LeBron who commands a double team. Gooden is the jumping bean, a
rebounding force who is comfortable making plays off the ball or
catching and shooting from 15 feet. Varejao's trademark is relentless
effort, making him another force on the glass as well as the most
energetic defender of the group and the best at moving without the
ball. Marshall is the 3-point specialist, brought in to help stretch
out collapsing defenses and open the paint for James and Hughes. And
Pollard is the muscle guy, whose job is to apportion his six fouls to
have maximum impact.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Shooting. The one glaring weakness on this team is the lack of outside
shooting. Jones and Marshall were supposed to correct that shortcoming
a year ago, but both struggled from outside despite getting numerous
wide-open opportunities. Hughes and Snow aren't good outside shooters
and the big men can't step out beyond 15 feet, so opposing defenses
have an open invitation to collapse and wait for LeBron on his drives.
This is another reason the offense looks so stagnant at times -- it's
tough to get penetration when the other team has five defenders waiting
inside the paint.

While the Cavs' starting lineup doesn't figure to have much shooting
punch, they've at least addressed it with the bench. Brown and Wesley
both are spot-up shooters who should be able to punish zone defenses,
while one would think Marshall and Jones will see their 3-point
percentages bounce back from last year's disappointments. But don't be
surprised if Cavs GM Danny Ferry keeps shopping for another gunner
during the season to help open more space for LeBron.

2006-07 OUTLOOK

If you haven't gathered this already, I think the Cavs are going to be
quite a bit better than people expect. As long as James stays in one
piece, the 50-win total from last season is pretty much the floor for
this club. While the Cavs have question marks, they're almost all
positive question marks. What I mean is that, compared to last year,
the Cavs improve quite a bit with any "yes" answers.

For instance, although Hughes is injury-prone it's hard to imagine him
missing more than the 46 games he missed last year. And if he sticks
around for 70 games, the Cavs become much, much better. Then there's
the trio of Hughes, Marshall and Jones -- perhaps they can't bounce
back from last year's disappointments, but if even one of them does, it
will add a few wins. And if they all do, look out.

It's the same as you move on down the line. If the Cavs get anything
from Brown or Wesley, that's another positive, because they got nothing
from those spots a year ago. And as the primary backups behind James
and Hughes on the wings, almost anything they do will be better than
the wastrels who filled the role a year ago -- The Warm Body Effect in
action.

Finally, it's not hard to improve the team with a few touches around
the trade deadline. Picking up an inexpensive veteran shooter or a
role-playing wing man isn't a big challenge at that time of year, and
those are the only pieces the Cavs are missing.

In short, I think King James' time is going to be sooner than some
folks expect. Somebody has to win the East this year, and the other
contenders all have obvious flaws. So does this team, of course, but
between James' brilliance and the strength of the frontcourt, I expect
the Cavs to be the last Eastern team standing.
***

--
Jeremey

BTW, thanks for sharing. I started reading the beginning of this article but
was not about to pay to finish reading it. Glad I didn't. There is nothing
new here other than the bold prediction of them winning the Eastern Finals,
which is surprising.

How are things in Portland?

Keith

Good stuff. Thanks for the post. The unquestioned highlight was referring
to our primary backups on the wings as "wastrels". I think you have to dust
off a rarely used gem to describe our backup guards last season. It's easy
to be irrationally hopeful for the coming season, but Hollinger makes a good
quantitative argument to rationalize those expectations. I never really
thought about the VORP thing -- I don't particularly like that level of
quantification, but I guess it's better than a gut feeling -- but I couldn't
believe how poorly our entire backcourt played and can't imagine the
disaster repeating.

One thing I didn't see mentioned was that our competition has, by and large,
gotten worse. Detroit lost the defensive heart and soul from a defensive
team. They'll still be good, but they were barely better than us last
season and defintely didn't keep pace. Indiana is a "catastrofuck" once
again, and while I hesitate to write off a team because of "chemistry
issues", it just seems like the Pacers are snake-bitten. And even with
perfect luck and player behavior, they aren't *that* good. The Bulls and
Bucks could both be surprising, but neither one has the talent, depth, and
experience of the Cavs. So winning the Central is actually a realistic
goal.

Since Lebron plays a lot of minutes and dominates the ball both
handling and shooting do those players' PERs perhaps understate thier
limited value? A backup guard on another team for example will just
walk into a few easy assist plays but in Cleveland on many possessions
they may not ever even get a touch.

Bob Koca

On Wed, 11 Oct 2006 10:28:57 -0400, "JT" <noaddressgiven@hotmail.com>
wrote:


i think detroit dodged a bullet by losing wallace - i think the NBA
has already moved into a post - SA/Detroit defensivemnded era and
chicago just hammered themselves by locking themselves into a long
term contract with a center who can barely make layups. but...


yeah.




"i can spell. i just can't type."

"JT" <noaddressgiven@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:452cfaa2$0$26859$c3e8da3@news.astraweb.com...
referring
dust
easy
good
couldn't

I don't see it repeating either. I would also point out that the "wastrels"
Pavlovic, Jackson, and Newble were all on IR for extended periods of time
last year. Graham was on the team less than half a year. None really got any
rhythm. You could argue that Pavlovic had his chance. He did start for
awhile. He is young. His defense was poor. He saw little playing time once
Murray was acquired. Who knows what damage has been done to is psyche or if
he will ever have what it takes. He is young, has potentia and I think he
can play. Murray was an improvement but certainly not that good of a player
offensively or defensively. I believe the Pistons signed him cheaply
primarily to learn about our system (much like Hughes knowing Washington's
system helped us in the playoffs last year). Brown and/or Wesley along with
a 'healthy" Hughes will definitely produce at a much higher level than the
group last year. Of that group, I think either Pavlovic or Jackson will
produce. The other is gone. Newble is a waste and a millstone we can't
unload. I doubt Graham will not start the season on the active roster.

large,

Agree on the Pistons and pacers assessments. Chicago is a talented young
team with playoff experience that just added a four-time defensive player of
the year who has a ring and considerable playoff experience. They also got
another veteran in P.J. Brown. It will be interesting. Same for the Bucks. I
do think we can win the central.

Keith