"Dano58" <dan.dibiase@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1160572622.997570.283230@m73g2000cwd.googlegr oups.com...
Well for one thing it's highly unlikely Loretta will be in that spot.

"Dano58" <dan.dibiase@gmail.com> wrote in news:1160572622.997570.283230
@m73g2000cwd.googlegroups.com:

news:1160491650.995611.109830
nightmare....

Right, same as the CF dilema last winter. They'll have to eat some of
Manny's contract, most likely, to get him out of town.

Dano wrote:


Yeah, keep seeing that around, too bad, really. I haven't seen Pedroia
play but is he ready to be 2nd baseman for us in 2007? He batted .305
in AAA last year, no idea of his fielding percentage.

Dan D
Central NJ USA

Dano58 venit, vidit, et dixit:

<snip>


Offhand, I'd say Pedroia's a B prospect. I've read the opinions of
others who think more highly of him, but he looks to me like a Jody
Reed type -- very valuable in his best years, but not necessarily
anything special. Let's look at his numbers...

age level games AVG OBP SLG
21 A 12 .400 .474 .560
21 A+ 30 .336 .417 .523
22 AA 62 .324 .409 .508
22 AAA 51 .255 .356 .382
23 AAA 111 .305 .384 .426
23 MLB 31 .191 .258 .303

Eric Van might point out that he has a history of starting slowly
at any league, so that we shouldn't be overly concerned with how
poorly he hit in MLB this year -- after all, he started off really
possrly in AAA this year as well, but brought his numbers up
considerably by the time he was called up. He'll also be 24 next
year, and so has plenty of time to still develop -- a 23-year old
who has shown he can hit minor league pitching and so is ready
for the majors is a valuable commodity.

Still, since his call-up to AAA last year, Pedroia has demonstrated
pretty much no power whatsoever. He draws some walks, and that's
definitely a good thing, but with no power, he may have to hit .300
in order to be particularly valuable offensively. Otherwise, he's
just a young version of Loretta (albeit one with more potential
for growth than Loretta, past his prime, has).

I find it tough to put the above numbers into context. So here's
what Kevin Youkilis was doing at age 23:

age level games AVG OBP SLG
23 A 15 .283 .433 .377
23 A+ 76 .295 .422 .388
23 AA 44 .344 .462 .500

Notice that Pedroia was a better hitter in A and A+ at a younger
age than Youkilis. Youkilis did have a very nice run at AA at
the age of 23 (a year older than Pedroia had a nice year at
AA), by which time Pedroia was holding his own at AAA and earning
a callup to MLB.

Here's what Youkilis has done in AAA and MLB:

age level games AVG OBP SLG
24 AAA 32 .165 .295 .248
25 AAA 38 .266 .350 .403
25 MLB 72 .260 .367 .413
26 AAA 43 .322 .459 .592
26 MLB 44 .278 .400 .405
27 MLB 147 .279 .381 .429

Note how poorly Youkilis hit at the age of 24 in AAA. And at age
25, he hit about as well (perhaps a little worse -- tough to know
without park-adjustments) as Pedroia did this year at age 23 as
a second baseman (for whom the offensive expectations are lower).
And make no mistake about it, if Youkilis were a second baseman
(and able to field the position), he'd be pretty valuable (a Jody
Reed type, as I say). I look at the numbers and see a guy who
doesn't quite have Youkilis's batting eye, but who's roughly as
good offensively at a younger age and at a position for which
offense is at less of a premium.

So he's valuable. The question is whether or not he'll be a star.
I wouldn't bet on it, but then I'd always bet against people's
being stars unless they're absolutely crushing minor-league
pitching in a low-altitude park in a pitcher's league.

One more guy to bring up. Call him X for now. He's also a
middle-infielder.

age level games AVG OBP SLG
23 A+ 69 .339 .388 .446
23 AA 44 .326 .363 .472

Pedroia's more advanced by a year or so over this guy. Pedroia
hit A+ pitching better when two years younger (though in fewer
games). Pedroia hit AA better a year younger, earning another
promotion.

Here's what X did in AAA and MLB at age 24 and age 25.

age level games AVG OBP SLG
24 AAA 45 .301 .350 .432
24 MLB 12 .188 .278 .188
25 AAA 58 .341 .430 .493
25 MLB 20 .235 .235 .294

Again, it seems pretty clear to me that Pedroia is more advanced
than this kid. Pedroia's as good a hitter at a younger age.

It turns out that X had a pretty nasty injury which ended short
his age-25 season and truncated his age-26 season.

age level games AVG OBP SLG
27 MLB 132 .291 .336 .400
28 MLB 157 .344 .378 .473

Now I'm NOT NOT NOT saying that Dustin Pedroia is going to be
a batting champion or that he's going to turn out to be better
than Freddy Sanchez. (Perhaps what I'm really suggesting is that
Sanchez's batting title this year was somewhat unexpected, to say
the least!) But I do think that Pedroia has been better than
Sanchez thus far in his professional career and at younger ages.
Given how valuable Sanchez was this year at age 27, that's
definitely something to keep in mind (just as it's also important
to note that it took until age 27 for Sanchez to be particularly
valuable offensively).

Catch you later.
--Robert Machemer

--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!
IF1, 3, 9, 22: best film, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"Can't complain; had his chance, and in modern parlance, blew it."

"Bob-Nob" <bobnob15@SPaMol.com> wrote in message
news:Xns985A590C3792Fbobnob15aolcom@207.217.125.20 1...
Great analysis as always. One other aspect that must be considered is
price. It is definitely worth it to give him his chance. I agree that you
just can't know for sure who will blossom into a star. I wouldn't be too
disappointed with a Jody Reed type myself. That would be pretty decent
value. Jody's early career numbers were very good IMO. No power, but good
speed and defense, good OBP. Pedroia still may hit for more power, but if
he has the OBP he had in the minors, he could be the answer as our leadoff
man eventually. He may not steal many bases, but he has much more speed
than Youks...hell, you may have more speed than Youks.

Dano venit, vidit, et dixit:

<snip of stuff on Pedroia>


Thanks.


Oh, totally agreed. That's something that gets glossed over on
these lesser salaries way too often, but it's exactly why a lot of
the statheads here (Lyford and others) were screaming about the
AGon signing when it happened, for instance. It's not that people
thought that Alex Cora would be significantly better than AGon, but
that he could be roughly as good and was already under contract.
Those couple of millions could have been used elsewhere -- and
even if they couldn't, saving a couple of millions here and there
can add up.

Anyway, I'm definitely of the opinion that one of the two starting
middle infielders should be Pedroia in 2007. At worst, I think
he'll give the Sox what Loretta gave them this year (worse
offensively and better defensively), and I have plenty of hope
that he'll be better than that (at least as good offensively).
I'm less sure of his ability to play shortstop competently, but
I'm sure he will be a more valuable offensive player than AGon
will be.



Absolutely. Jody Reed wasn't a star, but he was definitely a
valuable player. He was a better Marty Barrett and could play
shortstop, and Barrett himself was useful, if not as good as
Reed (when Reed was with the Sox).


Well, I care very little about speed in the leadoff spot -- in
fact, given a choice of players with equal OBPs and SLGs, I'd
rather have the slower player in the leadoff spot and the
faster player in the bottom part of the order. But I agree
that if Youkilis himself isn't leading off, I'd consider
Pedroia as a leadoff hitter.


Better to suggest that Gnork may have more speed than Youkilis
if you mean to slight Youkilis. I'm actually pretty fast.

Catch you later (or sooner if you run as slowly as Youkilis)
--Robert Machemer

--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!
IF1, 3, 9, 22: best film, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"Can't complain; had his chance, and in modern parlance, blew it."