I know by the time I get back next week to see the posts that it'll
all be over, but one of the differences in the team this year is that
they finally managed to beat both the Astros and Cards in the season
series.

That means in a 3 way tie, we get all tie breakers.

I would've thought that meant that the other two would have to play,
then come to cinci to play us, but just like everything else about MLB
scheduling, this too is screwed up.

Instead they're given 2 options.

Option 1: Play 1st team at home. If they win, play at home against
the other team the next day.

Option 2: Make the other 2 play, then travel to the winner and play
the next day.

Which would you choose and why?

On Fri, 29 Sep 2006 10:39:55 -0400, "David Short"
<David.no.Short@Wright.spam.Edu.please> wrote:


What if that one game means Oswalt or Carpenter?

On Fri, 29 Sep 2006 10:50:59 -0400, "David Short"
<David.no.Short@Wright.spam.Edu.please> wrote:


Something I just noticed that's really asanine is that head to head
only seems to matter if there are 3 teams involved. If it's only a 2
team tie, then a friggin' coin flip is what determined where the game
is played.

So, reds astros at home, but would have to go to st louis despite
having a better head to head against both. So, it really would be
more advantageous to have a 3 way than a 2 way tie w/the cards. A
coin flip is just silly.


It's utterly beyond my understanding as to why mlb, whose long
schedule emphasizes the 162 games marathon and where home field truly
means something, doesn't reward the teams who win the most during the
regular season with an advantage during the post-season. It's
baffling.

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:451d1f9f.674132302@news3.news.adelphia.net...

Easy math.
Option 2.

Assume the teams are evenly matched and the advantage of playing at home is
huge,
Say that there's a 60-40 chance that you win a home game and a 40-60 chance
that you win a road game.

Chances of making the playoffs under option 1
= you must win game 1. You must win game 2.
= .6*.6 = 0.36

Chances of making the playoffs under option 2
= you don't care who wins game1. You must win game 2.
= 1.0 * 0.4 = 0.4

Move the odds of winning at home to a more realistic 55-45 split and you get
..55*.55 = 0.30 < 0.45 which is huge.

Added into that that you've shot your two best pitchers under the first
option meaning that you go into the playoff series starting Kyle Lohse or
Michalak or somebody like that? ichy -poo.

dfs

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:451d2644.675832643@news3.news.adelphia.net...

Doesn't matter because the second game in the two game option will also mean
Oswalt or Carpenter.
Somebody gets to play one game. That's a huge advantage in a play-in.

dfs

"David Short" <David.no.Short@Wright.spam.Edu.please> wrote in message
news:efjbtc$4la$1@posting.glorb.com...

Hopefully, they would use O or C in their head to head game! Meanwhile, we
would rest Harang or Arroyo for the game... or Elizardo.

On Fri, 29 Sep 2006, JustTom wrote:


What am I missing? Play the one game. I wonder if you get home team
advantage even if they do travel. Home field doesn't hold that big an
advantage in the baseball that you throw out a guaranteed win. Plus
you haven't wasted two pitchers going into the playoffs if you do
win.

Wonder how the teams split the gate. That might be a consideration
with the front office.

On Fri, 29 Sep 2006, JustTom wrote:


Yeah it's strange they don't come down to head to head victories/divisional
record, etc. I mean why don't they throw dice or something with three
teams involved? Baseball is pretty stupid, they didn't develope the
pitch count as a statistic until recently because most people in the
game could not count past nine.

On Fri, 29 Sep 2006 12:22:41 -0400, Zuke <me@privacy.net> wrote:


That was one of the things I thought about. With reds front office,
you just never know, with a chance for one & maybe two sellouts.