The Phils won 85 games this year. The playoffs are within their grasp with
only a few more wins. Heck, three more would have done it this year. The
brass should get serious about improving the team, because it's a reachable
goal to make the playoffs in 2007. Here's one man's recipe.

To my mind, there are only three positions set for next year: 1B, 2B, and
SS. Howard, Utley, and Rollins are just fine. We can tinker with just about
everything else.

Catcher. The Phils are in better shape than you might think. Coste hit .328
after 198 at-bats, so no one can say it was a fluke. Carlos Ruiz improved as
the year went on, hitting .261 by the end. We could go with those guys next
year and be all right. My preference is to put three catchers on the roster.
Bringing back a low-contract Lieberthal would be OK, but adding Johnny
Estrada would be even better. Estrada hit .302 last year, says he wants out
of Arizona, and wants to come back to Philly. Great, let's get him here!
That would also free up Coste to play some 3B if needed.

Third Base. Speaking of which, here is the place where the Phils can make
their biggest marginal improvement. Abe Nunez plays a fine defensive 3B, but
his .211 average means he makes the team as a utility player only. Lucky for
us, there are lots of fine third basemen who will potentially be available
this off-season. Aramis Ramirez will be a free agent. Love to have him, but
if the market is too expensive, let's grab Morgan Ensberg, who is in the
doghouse in Houston. Ensberg was slowed by injuries this year, but he was an
All-Star in 2005, and still hits a lot of homeruns and walks a lot. His
average will bounce back. Other possibilities are the league's leading
hitter, Freddy Sanchez, who is a free agent. He has no power, but if you hit
..344, that's OK, the Phils have enough HR power elsewhere. Supposedly
Blalock will be available, but I'm not that high on him as the others. It
would also be great if Miguel Tejada changed his mind and decided that
playing 3B was a small price to pay for getting out of Baltimore. There are
so many reasonable possibilities, there will be no excuse for not getting
something done here for 2007.

Center Field. The excellent play of Shane Victorino has made Aaron Rowand
expendable. He could be dealt for more pressing needs, like a starting
pitcher, or even a left fielder, and let Victorino play center every day.
Shane does not have as much power as Rowand, but he hits for a better
average and OPS, runs better, throws better, and covers just as much ground
in center. Having said that, it's also OK to play Rowand here everyday, if
we can't get good value for him in a deal.

Right Field. If Rowand stays and plays center, then we can play Victorino in
right field every day. He does not have the power you want in a corner
outfielder, but otherwise he would be just perfect, and the Phils have
enough power elsewhere in the lineup. If Victorino is in center, then we
think about a Dellucci/Conine platoon in RF.

Left Field. The best solution is to push the magic button and make Pat
Burrell revert back to the guy who played in April May and July. The guy who
played in August and September was just awful, I hope I never see him again.
If the real Pat Burrell won't stand up, and they aren't in RF, then we could
consider a platoon of Dellucci and Conine, the chief problem being that
Dellucci is a free agent, and says he wants to leave. He may change his mind
if he is promised a starting job in LF and enough $$$. If we can sign
Dellucci, I'd be fine with sending Burrell off to anyone who will pay his
salary.

Relief Pitching. These guys were dandy through about mid-July, and then like
Burrell, fell apart in August and September. It's no mystery why, because
the starters could not get into the 6th inning the first half of the year,
and Charlie had to overuse his bullpen early, even when it had 7 or 8 guys
in it. I think if we can count on the rotation to produce 4 guys who will
throw 200 innings, we have the makings of a good bullpen already, to wit:
Gordon (R, and closer), Geary (R), Madson (R), Fultz (L), Smith (L) and
Castro (L). Yes, six is plenty. Yes, Madson stunk in 2006, but this was
mostly when he started and he deserves at least a full year pitching
exclusively out of the pen, where he has excelled in the past. Yes, good-bye
to the old guys who are now at the end of their ropes or never should have
been brought here in the first place: Arthur Rhodes, Rick White, Julio
Santana.

Starting Pitching. Even more so than leaving men on base, here is the reason
why the Phils did not make the playoffs in 2006. Let's not be deceived by
the generally good starting pitching we saw in August and September. The
Phils got off to a bad start and blew out their bullpen early because from
April to July, the starting rotation was just terrible. They gave up a lot
of runs and had trouble pitching into the 6th. Things slowly got better as
we added Cole Hamels, then got Wolf back, and finally added Jamie Moyer for
the stretch choke, er, run. For next year, it will be imperative to add at
least one legit starter, a guy who can not only throw 200 innings, but who
can *win* some games, say more than 12. Of the present crowd, the only one I'm
sure of is Hamels. Brett Myers could be an ace, if he lost about 30 pounds.
Let's bring him back, run him to death, and hope for the best. I've lost
faith in Jon Lieber, he is too old to get away with carrying his extra 30
pounds, so let's bring him back only if he shows up in the Spring with a new
and fit body--- a real long shot. The team has invested a lot in Wolf, and
pitchers usually pitch their best the year after coming back from Tommy John
story, so it's probably a good gamble to bring him back with a new contract.
Jamie Moyer is not the answer- he will be 44 next year, and he wants to go
back to Seattle, anyway. There is no point in counting on Gavin Floyd or
Eude Brito, anything they contribute would be an unexpected surprise. Let's
face it, we will need at least one, and preferably two, new starting
pitchers if the Phils want to seriously improve for 2007. It won't be easy.
Here's where dealing Rowand might make the most sense.

----- Kurt Straub

CORRECT.................but one has to be on a short contract because Jason
Jaramillo will be here soon



Err..................Coste's second position is 1b

Phillies already mentioed that Nunez would begin 2007 as the
starter..............If he is NOT the man is see something happening on
7/31/07 not over the winter
OOOOOPS stop right there,cross Ensberg off the list


but he was an

DITTO.............Sanchez no power vs Nunez no power.......bwahahahahahahaha

but if you hit
Hank Blalock?
Huh.............we just traded his brother Jake Blalock to Texas for David
Delluci




but I'm not that high on him as the others. It
One in center,one in left(rowand/victorono) and buh-bye burrell



Already did that.....no takers on burrells salary.

WOLF is Gone



, and finally added Jamie Moyer for

no he wont

if he lost about 30 pounds.



What ?
no evaluation of Choilley

Kurt Straub wrote:

I mostly agree, if we're talking about position players only.


His hitting is definitely not a fluke. Coste has always been able to
hit,
but he has no position. He's not a natural catcher, and he's not very
good at it.

Carlos Ruiz improved as

I don't disagree. I like Ruiz as a catcher, I just don't like counting
on
him as the only REAL catcher on the team.

My preference is to put three catchers on the roster.

I wouldn't mind that.


I somehow can't picture that being a good idea.


I can't see them spending money on Ramirez, but if they would, wouldn't
you rather have Soriano?



I agree, I was very skeptical about Victorino at first, but he's from
the
same hard-nosed mold as Rowand, plays hard all the time,
and is liked by the fans. I think he's a good fit. Rowand just doesn't
hit as much as I would have liked.


Conine is done. He was useless down the stretch. I'd like to have
Dellucci back and give him the starting job at a corner outfielder,
on the assumption the Phils won't spend money for a new outfielder.
Wade screwed the Phils big time with Burrell's contract (Lieberthal's,
Abreu's, Thome's, etc.) and have undone much of his mess already,
and we would give away Burrell like Abreu and Thome. I liked the
Thome trade at first, but Victorino made Rowand an extra.


I agree, except Madson has to go. He doesn't want to pitch from the
'pen
and it shows. He sucks as a starter, so what are the options?


So Myers, Hamels, _____, Wolf, ______ is the way I see it. I hate when
the Phils just hand a bunch of rotation spots to various AA and AAA
pitchers that come up and get overmatched. GIllick tried trading for
Jason Schmidt for Abreu last offseason, do you think Gillick will try
signing him?

Dennis

> Catcher. The Phils are in better shape than you might think. Coste hit .328

If we get Estrada, he becomes the everyday catcher. I would likely
keep Ruiz as the backup and keep Coste around as well if we can. I'm
not a big fan of Coste behind the plate, so to me it's a toss up
between him and Ruiz if it comes down to it.


We need a power guy to bat behind Howard and this is the best place to
get it. I would take a pass with Sanchez, unless you think J-Rol can
repeat his 2006 numbers and bat 5th. I'm not a big fan of that.


Let's assume Pat is gone (most likely).

Dellucci\Conine: Dellucci showed nothing at the end when we needed him.
I have no problems letting him walk or keeping him for the right
price. Conine is fine off the bench, but I don't really want to count
on him all season long. At his age, you are going to wear him out.
He's should be spot playing at best. Both of these guys are slow and
it's time to move in a different direction.

Victorino: Yes, he covers more ground then Rowand, but he also has a
gun of an arm that you want to keep in RF. His throws are from the
outfield are jaw-dropping. If you have a slow LF, you can have
Victorino cheat toward CF and the CF cheat toward LF.

Rowand: You can use him as trade bait, but coming off of a year with
below average numbers for his 2007 salary and being hurt twice this
year, I don't think he has as much value as you would think. I would
play Roward in CF or LF (see below about LF).

Bourn: Bill Conlin hit the nail on the head when he said in his last
column that Bourn needed a full spring training look. Bourn is in the
point of his career that he has little to learn at AAA. Speed? I have
no idea who win in a foot race between Bourn and Victorino, but it
might be Bourn. Clearly you need a plan B when Bourn slumps, but I
think the goal should be to give Bourn experience at the major league
level in 2007 and have him the full time starter by 2008. At worse, he
should be your 4th outfielder.

Outfield: Rowand LF, Bourn CF, Victorino RF
Outfield (when Bourn not playing): Dellucci (or some FA)\Conine LF,
Rowand CF, Victorino RF

Bourn also adds a ton of team speed to the line up by swapping him for
either Pat the Bat, Dellucci or Conine.

Lineup:

1\2: Victorino and Bourn
3: Utley
4: Howard
5: Power Hitting 3B with more consistant production then J-Rol
6: J-Rol
7: Other Outfielder
8: Catcher

When Bourn is not playing, move J-Rol to the top and move the new OF to
7th.


I agree with all of this. I can go to war next year with Gordon,
Geary, Madson, Fultz, Smith and Castro and odds are the Phils will add
someone else to this mix.


I see no way trading Rowand is going to give you a starting pitcher of
any real value.

Going with Myers and Hamels as your number 1 and 2 pitchers is fine
(and you likely have no choice until we are done paying Thome and Pat
the Bat).

Lieber, Wolf, Moyer and Floyd would all be fine as a number 4 or 5 in
your rotation. All have pluses and minuses. Wolf is your only Left
handed starter. Moyer gives you a 6 inning quality start each time out
(but no more). Lieber can have the best stuff on a given night right
now. Floyd is too young to give up on.

I would try hard to keep Wolf and Moyer. Moyer is consistant and would
be a big help to the young pitchers. Wolf blew out his arm in 2005 and
hadn't pitched in year when he came back in 2006, so anyone who
expected anything out of Wolf this year was fooling themselves. 2007
is when we should see the old Wolf back. It should be no problem
getting that deal done. Let's assume you only get Wolf back and he is
your 4 starter.

We need to improve the 3 spot and get a lefty if possible. Lieber has
value (and likely the most value of the group) and you might be able to
swap Lieber for a better pitcher if you package him with someone else.
Rowand? Floyd? Other minor league players?

For the 5 spot let Floyd, Brito and some other FA fight it out for the
spot. If you don't think Floyd can cut it, then trade him now before
he has no value. I haven't given up on him, but would trade him for
the right deal. If you keep Moyer for another year, then Floyd and
Brito really become trade bait.

Of course we all like the Phils to spend a extra 5 million or so (which
is not too much to ask, since pay for players go up and the Phils stand
pat), but a better bat behind Howard and improved 3rd starter are the
only major improvements we need to make the playoffs with the improved
clubhouse attitudes.

Paul W wrote:


Why?


These power-hitting 3Bs don't grow on trees. Any ideas? Oh, and yes it's
nitpicking, but when comparing you use "than", not "then".

-greg

Paul W wrote:

That's a HORRIBLE outfield. I can deal with Victorino's production
in center field, but not as a corner outfielder. Rowand does NOT
qualify as a corner outfielder- that's half the production you want.
I've seen NOTHING that indicates Bourn can hit major league
pitching, he's another Roberson as far as I'm concerned.


I thought you said move in a different direction with Dellucci/Conine.
Now you want him re-signed and splitting time in the outfield? Fat
chance he'll go for that.


Speed is only important if he can get on base.


Victorino's .346 OBP this season is barely adequate for any position
in the lineup, let alone leadoff. No way in hell. Better than Rollins,
but
that's not saying much. Bourn getting more at-bats than Utley and
Howard? You are mad.


Now I have PROOF That you are mad. J-Rol at the top of the lineup?
Have you witnessed nothing in this failed experiment?


I don't want any of these 3 on the team next year, except MAYBE
Moyer if his arm doesn't fall off because of his veteran influence.


Jason Schmidt


Moyer can be 5th starter MAYBE, but NO NO NO Floyd or Brito. They suck.



Dennis

greg's impeccable blahs wrote:

This guy has a list of potential FAs that can be sorted by position, or
in various other ways:

http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php

Aubrey Huff is the only guy in there who really stands out to my mind
(although Ramirez isn't on the list, probably because he has to void
his last year or something to become a free agent)...some of them have
been starting for OK teams though (Russell Branyan, Pedro Feliz)...Wes
Helms always looks fairly competent against the Phillies, but is he
really a starter, or a 3B?

greg's impeccable blahs wrote:

As Dennis said as well, I don't think he is that good of a catcher when
it comes to blocking balls, framing pitches, etc. Hitting is no
problems.


Sorry about the than\then, I always slip with that.

I'll punt this until I get home from work, when the sport sites are not
blocked for me. If not a FA, then maybe via trade. I'm not looking
for a 40 HR guy. Someone with J-Rol like numbers from THIS year:
..280ish BA, 25-28 HR and a good average with men on base would be what
I'm looking for.

If J-Rol could reproduce this year and not have one of his long cold
streaks, I would be fine with him, but I don't trust him that much.

PW

Dennis wrote:

Well we disagree. With all the runs you are scoring you can have
non-power guys in the OF. Oh no, we won't be first in Runs Scored and
might be 2nd or 3rd? Boo Hoo. The extra defence you get would be very
nice and will allow you do depend less on the HR to score.

As for Rowand, what choice does he have? He had a below average year
for the money he's going to make in 2007. Good luck going somewhere
else and getting the same money.


Or some FA. Bourn\Dellucci\Conine is fine for me. Odds are Dellucci
will walk (no big loss), so they will pick up someone else to help
split the time. I'd like to see Bourn and someone else, with a dash of
Conine.


He's worth the look. Waaaaaay too early to tell. 45 SB in the minors
last year with a .283 Average in AAA. He had to get on base a little
bit to steal 45 bags. He's had a .400 OBP for most of his years in
college and minors. His OBP is .379 for his time in the minors and at
the U of Houston. His numbers took a dip in AA and rebounded in AAA
last year.


It's his first full year in the majors. Give the guy a break. His
last full year at AAA with a .310 AVG, .377 OBP, .534 SLG for a .911
OPS doesn't look bad. Did you expect for him to reproduce those
numbers in his first year? Give him some time.


I'm not the biggest fan of J-Rol at the top, but you can do alot worse
and you have bigger worries with the Phils. For as much as we might
not like it, the Phils were very successful scoring runs with him
there.


Schmidt, is a FA so you can't trade for him and there is NO WAY the
Phils are going to pay him the going rate. Plus, with as often as he
is hurt, I want don't want him at the number he is going to be asking.


Too early to see with Floyd.

Dennis, with Bourn and Floyd you have to give these guys more then part
of a season to see if they can play. It takes time. The number of
players who are going to come right out of the minors and light it up
is few and far between. I had this same agruement with Utley in years
past. I had a series of posts about how we had to give this guy time
in the majors and was killed by a number of people.

I don't know what to make of Bourn and Floyd, but if you are judging
them on Bourn's few weeks in the majors and Floyd likely has about 1
year of service tops you are jumping the gun.

PW

Paul W wrote:

When are you willing to sacrifice runs? When it's the bottom of
the 9th of a 1 run game? Because the Phils lose bunches of
them. You can't dilute the lineup and COUNT on career years
from Howard and Utley every season to carry them to the World
Series. I'm not willing to concede ANY scoring for the sake of
someone that can run fast in the outfield AND can't even hit .300
in the minors. Players excelling in the minors is the first sign
that they can excel in the majors. When their minor league OPS
is .900, then you start paying attention. Bourn ain't there.


Huh? I have no idea what you're trying to say in relation to this
conversation.


What have you seen of Bourn? I'm curious. I am not willing to pencil
in some rookie who has average OPS numbers in the minors. At
least Ruiz raked in at Scranton last season. Bourn had *15* extra
base hits in 80 games at Reading. That is obscenely low.


That's great that he's fast an all, but you can't have a
one-dimensional
player at a corner outfield spot. That's the 2nd biggest offensive
position
in baseball.


He only walked 24 times with 415 at-bats this season. Players
don't learn plate discipline at 25 years old. He is what he is, he
may hit for a higher average, he may get a few more extra
base hits, but he's not going to be a .400 OBP leadoff guy
that every other team in baseball looks for.


He is the biggest or 2nd biggest worry on offense when he's hitting
leadoff. A leadoff hitter CANNOT get on base an insignificant 33%
of the time. You increase the odds greatly of Utley and Howard
coming up with no one on. That's not what I call setting the table.

For as much as we might

Um, Utley and Howard have extraordinary offensive seasons and
they don't make the playoffs. Not good enough.


I never said to trade for him. I know he's a FA. I'm saying that's
what I would do and Gillick going after him last offseason gives
me reason to believe he's thinking the same thing.


With as often as the scraps the Phils have as an option suck ass,
I'll take a couple risks.


Floyd has no control. You seem to expect players to transform
their careers and become players they are not.


On the Phillies anyway.

I had this same agruement with Utley in years

You never heard me kill him. He showed all the basics, unlike
Bourn.


You are willing to let mediocre players try for years to become
players they clearly are not. I've seen way, way, way too much
of that over the years here. I ain't buying what you're selling.

Dennis