http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/play...tory?id=2619319

Editor's Note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that
supplies reports and tools regularly used by major-league teams. The
following look ahead is based on their scouting data:

1. Was Zito really that good?

Seven innings pitched, three hits and one run. That was the line for
Barry Zito,. the A's Game 1 starter, in his only outing against the
Tigers on April 20. Not bad, right?

How about these numbers?
· 39% first-pitch strikes
· Never made it to an 0-2 count all night
· Fastball in the strike zone 33% of the time
· Curveball in the strike zone 18% of the time
· 19 of his 21 outs came while he was behind in the count or on 2-2
and 3-2 counts.

How did Zito pull off a quality start with these numbers?
1. Nobody touched him. Only one hitter made solid contact against Zito,
whose well-hit average against (hard-hit balls / at-bats) was .048. He
gave up one hard-hit ball all game -- a double by Magglio Ordonez.

2. He got the double-play ball. Zito had a runner at first in one-out
situations six times, and he got ground-ball double plays on three of
them to end innings.

3. The 1-0 changeup. Zito threw eight changeups on 1-0 counts. The
results of those eight pitches were two fly outs, one player reaching
on an error, and two double plays. The Tigers swung at all eight
changeups. The three that were not put in play were called strikes.

4. The Tigers were too impatient. They did a good job of taking pitches
out of the zone early, but not for the entire at-bat. They chased only
eight percent of pitches on 0-0, 0-1 and 1-1 counts and then proceeded
to chase 42 percent of pitches when the count was in their favor (1-0,
2-0, and 2-1 counts).

It is unlikely that Zito's in-zone and first-pitch strike percentages
will be as low as they were on that April day, but the Tiger hitters
still will have to be prepared for his changeup when he does fall
behind in the count. He has thrown his changeup more on 1-0 and 2-1
than on any other count this year.

2. Robertson: Keys to success

Nate Robertson, the Tigers' Game 1 starter, had a split decision
against the A's this year, losing 5-3 on July 3, and getting the win in
an 8-4 game on July 23. His numbers were pretty similar in both games.
He went seven innings in each, allowing five runs the first time, and
four the second. Here are a few observations and keys to success, based
on his first two outings against Oakland.

· Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby are both out with injuries. They, along
with Bobby Kielty, were the only A's who had more than one hit against
Robertson this season.

· The A's, uncharacteristically, swung the bat early and successfully
against Robertson. Four of their 12 hits came on the first pitch --
more than on any other count. Normally, A's hitters take 55 percent of
pitches in the strike zone on 0-0 counts, but against Robertson, they
took only 32 percent, and it paid off.

· Another key will be Robertson's slider. This has been his best
pitch against most teams, but two of the three A's homers against
Robertson came on sliders. Jay Payton's three-run home run on a hanging
slider was the crushing blow in the 5-3 loss.

· Walks were a factor in the first game. Robertson walked four
batters in the loss, but walked none in the win.

· A final key might be how often Robertson can get two of his first
three pitches for strikes. He did so only 45 percent of the time
against the A's in the two starts. This means he dug himself into a lot
of 2-1 counts rather than getting more favorable 1-2 counts. The
major-league average for throwing strikes on two of the first three
pitches is 60 percent.

3. Matchup scores: A's hitters

Inside Edge's computers determine a matchup score, which takes into
account all facets of the hitter and pitcher tendencies, using over two
years of data. Similar to a quarterback rating in football, a matchup
score can go above 100. Generally, any score above 75 means the hitter
matches up well with the starting pitcher in a particular game. Here
are Tuesday night's matchup scores for the A's hitters against
Robertson and the Tigers:

Hitter Score
Marco Scutaro 88.5
Frank Thomas 80.6
Jay Payton 72.1
Bobby Kielty 70.0
Dan Johnson 64.3
Adam Melhuse 62.9
Jason Kendall 62.4
Milton Bradley 62.0
Nick Swisher 61.3
Eric Chavez 53.7
Mark Kotsay 43.0
D'Angelo Jimenez 17.8
TOTAL 64.2

4. Matchup scores: Tigers hitters

Hitter Score
Sean Casey 88.5
Placido Polanco 83.4
Vance Wilson 79.1
Carlos Guillen 78.5
Curtis Granderson 73.2
Magglio Ordonez 72.9
Craig Monroe 70.6
Matt Stairs 67.6
Neifi Perez 64.1
Marcus Thames 58.3
Ivan Rodriguez 54.5
Chris Shelton 51.1
Brandon Inge 50.3
TOTAL 68.4

5. Will the Tigers run?

The Tigers attempted only one steal in their April 20 game against Zito
and the A's, and Brandon Inge was caught stealing:

Here are four reasons we might see the Tigers run more Tuesday --
especially on 1-0 counts:

· Zito has a habit of falling behind on the first pitch, and then
throwing a strike. His first-pitch strike percentage is lower than the
league average (54 percent compared to the major-league average of 58
percent). However, he throws a strike on 1-0 counts 64 percent of the
time. The odds are in the Tigers' favor for getting a pitch to hit and
run with on 1-0.

· The Tigers have attempted hit-and-runs on 1-0 counts more than any
other count except 0-0.

· As we discovered earlier, Zito likes to throw 1-0 changeups. If the
hitter swings through the hit-and-run and misses his changeup, the
Tigers still have a pretty good chance at getting a stolen base.

· Because they grounded into three double plays in the first matchup
against Zito (two of them on 1-0 changeups), the Tigers might be more
inclined to run in Game 1 in order to avoid a similar result.